000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT APR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 02N98W TO 04N109W TO 04N129W TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA TO 26N127W IS ANALYZED FROM 30N126W 
THROUGH 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N125W TO 23N126W TO 21N135W. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT 
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GFS AND WW3 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE LOW BECOMING COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED AS 
IT DISSIPATES THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR 23N122W...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR 
LESS. AS A RESULT 10-11 FT MAX SEAS W OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING 
WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS HONDURAS EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA IN 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO BEYOND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE NEAR 06S97W. THIS RARE CROSS-EQUATORIAL TUTT IS PART 
OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN 70W AND 
110W IN THE DEEP TROPICS...WHICH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS 
A TROUGH FROM 08N76W TO 05N77W TO 02N81W...AND ENHANCING DEEP 
CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 79W.

LONG RANGE FORECAST INDICATES GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUE OR WED. THE LONE 
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT N-NW SWELL LIKELY TO PUSH S 
OF 30N BETWEEN 118W-126W MON NIGHT FROM STRONG NW WINDS W OF THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SUN AND MON. OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE TROUGH 
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL