000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN APR 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 02S104W TO 02S116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02S103W TO 03.4S113W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ DEVELOPS NEAR 02N89W AND EXTENDS W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N120W...THEN CONTINUE W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 60 NM OF 0.5N80.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 05.5N84W...ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02.5N93W TO 02N100W...WITHIN 75 NM OF 03.5N125W AND N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N112W TO 05N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING N TO S FROM 32N130W TO 15N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SWINGING E THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE N OF 31N. A DENSE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATES IN THE TROPICS...AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N133W TO BEYOND 32N98W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS MEXICO WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER ANTICYCLONES OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICS E OF 100W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 05-13N E OF 103W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A NARROW PLUME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 15N100W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES AT 15-20 KT. COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 114-124W PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON WED WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE. LONG PERIOD NE...S AND NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 06-16N BETWEEN 128- 140W. THE NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM 14N132W TO 10N140W. OTHERWISE...THE N AND S SWELL COMPONENTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NE TRADE SWELL BUILDS THE COMBINED SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-30 KT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ON MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT A NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE LATE MON AND TUE NIGHTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT ENE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 09.5-12.5N BETWEEN 86-94W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. ANOTHER STRONG EVENT IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE NIGHTS. GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND ON MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 06N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED. $$ NELSON