000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI APR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 2145 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT  WILL SET UP 20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW DURING MAXIMUM 
DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT REACHING 30-35 KT MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE ON SAT EVENING. THE GALE WILL PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN 
NIGHT WITH WINDS WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND 20-25 KT 
CONDITIONS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 01S83W TO 00S92W. 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ 
DEVELOPS FROM 06N98W TO 01N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 03S86W TO 02S92W...WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
06.5N94W TO 04N126W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N132W.  


ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FLARES INTERMITTENTLY ALONG A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05N77W 
TO 02N81W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 
  
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
11N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW THROUGH ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 11N89W 
TO A CREST NEAR 34N118W. A 150 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE 
EXTENDS NE FROM THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND CONTINUES E 
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15-30N BETWEEN 122W-100W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO   
16N102W. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS AT 15-20 
KT...COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN MIXED S AND NW SWELL ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 26-32N BETWEEN 117-132W. THESE ENHANCED 
SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E REACHING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON 
MON. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE HAS RELAXED WITH NE TRADES OF 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 125W BETWEEN THE ITCZ 
AND THE RIDGE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT LONG 
PERIOD NE...S AND NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 
FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 07-27N BETWEEN 133-140W. 
THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE OF ENE 20-25 KT  
WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THESE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EVENTS WILL 
BECOME STRONGER BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT REACHING NEAR 09N91W. THE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 9 FT. MON NIGHTS EVENT MAY 
REACH A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 06N OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT.


$$ 
NELSON