000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N104W TO 07N117W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

W OF 110W...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N127W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF 
THE ITCZ TO AROUND 20N AND W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL WEAKEN AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL HELP FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO 
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY EARLY MON 
MORNING. THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS REACHING NEAR 9 FT. 

A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS 
PEAKING NEAR 10 FT OVER THESE WATERS CURRENTLY. THE SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING S AND E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. A LARGE SET OF SW SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS TO 
AT LEAST 7 FT AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COASTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

E OF 110W...A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS BELOW 6 FT IN MOST AREAS. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND 
PRODUCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PEAK 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG 
GAP WINDS EARLY TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 
KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL