000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT MAR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N107W TO 05N115W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 19N108W AND SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS AND WILL 
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 
20N AND W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS HELPING FOR SEAS 
TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 135W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE A NEW AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. NW 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS SUN MORNING WITH SEAS 
REACHING NEAR 10 FT OVER THIS AREA. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING S AND E THROUGH MON. AS THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 
WINDS STRENGTHENING AND ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.  

E OF 120W...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS 
MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MONDAY AND 
EARLY TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...VARIOUS WAVE MODELS ARE 
INDICATING LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO AT LEAST 7 
FT REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS BY LATE 
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
$$
AL