000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED MAR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W TO 
05N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION... 
 
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE GAP WIND EVENTS IN 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO HAVE ENDED. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN 
SEVERAL WEEKS THAT THERE ARE NO ONGOING GAP WIND EVENTS THAT 
EXCEED 20 KT WINDS OR SEAS TO 8 FT...AND NONE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT 
WINTER SEASON IS WINDING DOWN...AND WE ARE MOVING INTO THE 
TRANSITIONAL SPRING SEASON. THIS MEANS FEWER STRONG COLD FRONTS 
PUSHING FAR SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS WITH AREAS OF STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SW GULF OF MEXICO 
PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR STRONG DIURNAL WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL 
GAP WIND LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N114W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE AREA 
IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY 
SWELLS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. THIS SMALL AREA OF 
NORTHERLY SWELLS IS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. 
 
$$
AL