000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181534 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAR 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W TO 03.5N100W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 07N126W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 01.5N88W TO 04S103W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A MID LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS N AMERICA TODAY...CENTERED ON LARGE RIDGE ALONG 99W...WITH CUT OFF DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING NE AND UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE NEAR 33N100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FILLING MID LEVEL CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA- MEXICO BORDER NEAR 32N118W TO 15N126W THEN TRAILS OFF TO THE SW IN TUTT LIKE FASHION 06N147W. UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING W OF 140W INDUCING BROAD ZONE OF MID TO UPPER CONVERGENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS W OF TROUGH AXIS. DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW IN BASE OF TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE LOW LEVELS...ALBEIT WEAKLY...AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. ADDITIONALLY...TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED IN THIS SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS AND BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD W CENTRAL MEXICO. AT LOWER LEVELS...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS...THERE ARE NO ONGOING GAP WIND EVENTS THAT EXCEED 20 KT WINDS OR SEAS TO 8 FT...NOR ARE ANY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT WINTER SEASON IS WINDING DOWN...AND WE ARE MOVING INTO THE TRANSITIONAL SPRING SEASON. THIS MEANS FEWER STRONG COLD FRONTS PUSHING FAR SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS WITH AREAS OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SW GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR STRONG DIURNAL WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF STRONG 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF 8- 10 FT N-NW SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS 30N THIS EVENING BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. 8 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. AN AREA OF 7-10 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH FAR NW WATERS THU NIGHT BUT LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL NOT REACH 8 FT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE... EXPECT GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. $$ STRIPLING