000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152101
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN MAR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH OVER SW 
MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY 
THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE 
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 13 FT BY MON MORNING WITH THIS GALE 
WIND EVENT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 05N94W TO 08N108W TO 
04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 23N109W. THIS TROUGH HAS HELPED INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING NEAR 18.5N105W TO 08N107W. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED E OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRAIN INTO 
PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUED ACTIVITY WILL CREATE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THESE 
AREAS. 

A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING STRONG WINDS 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS...FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 138W AS 
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS. NW SWELLS TO 8 FT 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. THE WINDS AND 
SWELL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY 
AND FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MON NIGHT. A NEW SET OF NW 
SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT 
OVER THIS AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$
AL