000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN MAR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0225 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
COASTAL PLAIN OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH 
PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE 
OVERNIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY SUN MORNING...THEN 
FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SUN EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE ON TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N93W TO 05N105W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N117W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N107W WITH ASSOCIATED 
TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 14N107W TO 08N115W. THIS IS HELPING TO 
PRODUCE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N102W TO 14N104W TO 10N110W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IN 
MEXICO. THIS CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WITH MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. 

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL 
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUN EVENING. 
ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 
20N113W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ONLY 
SUPPORTING GENTLE TRADEWINDS. THE RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 
SUN AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING DOMINANT BY SUN NIGHT. THIS NEW 
RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK... SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE TRADES. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE EXTENT OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TO AS 
FAR W AS 93W DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

$$
AL