000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS 
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FUNNELING INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN 
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MEXICO 
TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. THIS 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND FURTHER 
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY SUN MORNING...AND FURTHER TO GALE 
FORCE SUN EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE 
ON TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05N90W TO 05N104W TO 
05N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N119W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS NEAR 10 FT. THE FRONT 
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL 
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N124W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ONLY SUPPORTING GENTLE TRADEWINDS. THE 
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES 
EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 
DOMINANT BY SUN NIGHT. THIS NEW RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK... 
SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE TRADES. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE EXTENT OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TO AS 
FAR W AS 93W DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

$$
AL