000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N101W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
07N114W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N127W 
EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N107W AND SW TO NEAR 25N140W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N 
OF THE ITCZ. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH THE TRADES. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. 

NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHILE SUBSIDING. SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER WILL REACH W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 18N140W BY SAT 
AFTERNOON. THEN REACH FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. 
AS A RESULT...STRONG WINDS THAT PREVAILED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                          
           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRING WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING N OF THE AREA 
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING 
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
AL