000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 04N93W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N93W TO 03N97W TO 06N112W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM 
SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N127W TO 
25N124W TO 14N106W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS LIE BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND THIS RIDGE. THE LONG NE FETCH COUPLED WITH 
PRIMARILY NW SWELL IS GENERATING 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
11N TO 16N W OF 130W AND FROM 03N TO 11N W OF 136W. THE RIDGE 
AXIS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE 
NE WIND WAVES AS THE NW SWELL DAMPENS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. 

A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES 
CENTER TO BEYOND 23N140W. W OF THE RIDGE LIES AN ACCELERATING 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH A SW JET ON ITS LEADING EDGE THAT IS 
PROPELLING MOISTURE ALOFT INTO NW WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A VAST AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS PRIMARILY W OF THE SECOND RIDGE AXIS. A SERIES OF NE TO 
SW ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX 
TROUGH. THE LEADING BOUNDARY IS DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES NW 
WATERS THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 
1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 32N145W TO JUST NE OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS 
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AS THE 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W SAT MORNING 
TO 32N131W TO 26N135W SUN MORNING. NW SWELL...CURRENTLY TO 8 FT 
N OF 29N W OF 137W...WILL BUILD TO 10 FT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE 
AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 133W.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N95W IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS...ALLOWING WINDS TO 30 KT 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS PREVAILING N OF 14N-15N THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA DOWNWIND TO AROUND 90W THROUGH SUN 
MORNING. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE 
NW CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE 
SOUTH...WEAKENING ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$
SCHAUER