000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
EASTERN MEXICO IS HELPING MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS IS 
PRODUCING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON...WITH FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
SAT AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
ITCZ FROM 07N82W TO 04N92W TO 06N108W TO 05N123W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
82W AND 92W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS COMBINED WITH 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC IS 
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING FRESH 
TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION COMBINED WITH 
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH 
WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA BY SAT AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N127W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES. THIS IS PRODUCING 
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATER N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE 
AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING 
THE TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE 
S AND NW SWELL DAMPENS. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY FRI EVENING.

$$ 
AL