000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111024 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 11 2015 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROUGH ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SWD ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO SURGE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO... BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THOSE FROM THE RECENT PROLONGED EVENT...WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THU NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY FRI. THE WINDS WILL INDUCE SEAS UP TO 12 OR 13 FT IN THE GULF BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT LATE THU...AND TO 8 FT FRI AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 05N100W TO 04N110W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 13N WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM 12N138W NEWD TO 26N128W TO WELL N OF THE AREA AT 32N126W...AND CONTINUING TO THE NW U.S. A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT RIDES THE W SIDE OF THE RIDE IN NE TO SW FASHION IS ADVECTING AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N126W TO 27N134W TO 23N140W. THE CLOUDS ARE REACHING CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN CONUS INTERIOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE N OF 27N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. E OF 120W...A WELL PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST REGION SW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N108W ...AND IT IS DROPPING SEWD. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR 10N108W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IS NOTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING TO THE NE OVER THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 27N AND E OF 104W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NEAR THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THU...BEFORE NEW ENERGY IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SWD INTO THE TROUGH FRI AND SAT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE PRESENT ONE...WITH MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO ...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND PUERTO ANGEL FRI INTO SAT TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N123W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 19N117W...AND ANOTHER ONE SW TO NEAR 24N134W. THIS FEATURE IS AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W. A 0604 UTC RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 9 FT MAX DUE TO NW SWELLS N OF 28N AND W OF 138W...BUT LOWER TO 8 FT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS EVENING. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OF 1004 MB OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SW TO 02N80W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RECENTLY DEVELOPED WEAK ISOLATED TSTM CELLS WITHIN 30-45 NM OF THE TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS ONES IN SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI THAT WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST NO MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS FOR SAME TIME PERIOD AND AREA. GAP WINDS...BOTH THE HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT AND ASCATB PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT CAPTURED A 25 NM WIDE SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REACHING SW TO NEAR 11N88W. THESE WINDS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND PULSES OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT ARE BEING INDUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES AND A 1005 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THEM TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY LATE TONIGHT THE PULSING STARTS UP AGAIN WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WINDS DECREASE SOME IN AREAL COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND BOTH IN LATITUDE AND IN LONGITUDE LATE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT AS PROJECTED BY THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE