000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE 
TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND INTO THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT 
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE 
EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BY EARLY THU.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  06N90W TO 03N115W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GAP WINDS HAVE SLACKENED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND PULSEAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE PAPAGAYO REGION...THE CURRENT 
TRAJECTORY OF THE WINDS IS ENABLING A RARE PLUME OF WINDS TO 
EMERGE FROM COAST OF NICARAGUA OFF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO 
TAMARINDO NEAR PUERTO SANDINO. THE COMBINED PLUMES ARE STRONGEST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PULSING NATURE 
OF THESE GAP WINDS INTERRUPTS WAVE  DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING 
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A 
SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF THE 
U.S...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 105W/107W AND OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
COAST. AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE 
OVER JALISCO AND MICHOCAN STATES IN MEXICO NEAR THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER NOTED OFFSHORE. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND AN UPPER LOW 
WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT. 
ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED CHANCES 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS WEAK NORTH OF 20N...AHEAD OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
REGION...CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W. RECENT 
RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE 
AREA. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR NEAR 8 FT N OF 27N W OF 137W OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO NW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS 
AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY 
LATE THU...BRINGING BRIEF SHOT OF 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW N 
OF 27N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI.

A RECENT STORM EVENT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL. THIS IS MIXING 
WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND A COMPONENT OF SE SWELL FROM 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 08N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 125W. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 
TONIGHT...LEAVING AN AREA OF MIXED SWELL TO 9 FT S OF 13N W OF 
135W WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WAVE GROWTH.

$$ 
COBB