000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 08N95W...WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 10 FT. AT 0100 UTC...LIBERIA LOCATED IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 KT WITH GUSTS TO 38 KT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SUGGESTING MAX WINDS OF 30 KT TO NEAR GALE FORCE FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 02N100W TO 03N110W TO 05N128W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH AT 05N132W TO BEYOND 03N140W. THE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO 05N131W. A SECOND ITCZ REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR AND STRETCHES FROM 05S94W TO BEYOND 03S120W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THESE TWO ITCZ AXES. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. THE SECOND RIDGE ALSO COVERS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N130W SE TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AXIS. A COUPLE OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 122W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. BY MON EVENING...NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 134W WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELLS...ORIGINATING FROM PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM FORCE WINDS...AND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF ABOUT 13N...AND SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 93W-120W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY EARLY MON AS PROJECTED BY WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA HAS MOVED TO NEAR 30N140W. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 22N W OF 138W BY MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW OF 1007 MB LOCATED NEAR 09N75W TO 01N82W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS TROUGH. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE GALE WARNING HAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRES CELL OVER NE MEXICO FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...THEN WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTER GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A NEW COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. GULF OF FONSECA...THE SAME HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15-20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON...AND REACH ONLY 10-15 KT ON MON NIGHT. $$ GR