000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080332 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE IZTEPEC LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE GULF WAS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUN MORNING...AND WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH ON MON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE FORCE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 03N100W TO 04N116W THEN RESUMES AT 04N120W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OF THE ITCZ DURING MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL TYPICALLY EXHIBITS DUAL AXIS...ONE N OF THE EQUATOR AND THE OTHER ONE TO THE S OF THE EQUATOR AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH BOTH ITCZ FEATURES. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 18N108W. THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXING WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A PREVIOUS STORM EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110- 120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY EARLY MON. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N139W TO 28N138W TO 25N140W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A FRONTAL TROUGH ON SUN. NW SWELLS WILL FILTER INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT N OF 20N W OF 138W BY MONDAY MORNING. .GAP WINDS... GULF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS 4N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT. $$ GR