000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RE-ENFORCE THE NORTHERLY 20-25 KT FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT RESULTING IN 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 14.5N95W. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY WED MORNING. THE NEXT EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 06N89W TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05N105W TO 04N115W TO THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N137W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 08N75W TO 08N81W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF OF 04N98W. A TROUGH EXTENDS N OF FROM THE ITCZ AT 08N137W TO 20N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N131W TO 17N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 04- 19N BETWEEN 126-138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 02N W OF 125W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N113W TO A CREST NEAR 32N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 12N135W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION IS ADVECTED COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 120W. SOME OF THE MOISTURES TURNS E ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120-110W BUT EVAPORATES IN A BAND OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS MOVING SE OVER AND ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO OVER THE EPAC NEAR 28N125W. AS THIS TROUGH SWINGS SE TONIGHT AND TUE THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALSO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS EARLY WED. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 135W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W ON TUE AND BE POSITIONED W OF 140W EARLY WED. AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 18-23N BETWEEN 128-140W WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W BY LATE FRI NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM OF 10N90W. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. $$ NELSON