000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO JUST N OF THE GULF IS PRODUCING N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT...THEN WITH ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW FACTOR KICKING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WILL HELP THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FT. BY 12 UTC TUE...THE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EVENING...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04N103W TO 03N112W TO 05N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N134W 1007 MB TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 134W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A VIGOROUS AND NARROW UPPER ROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 15N139W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 02N122W. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 119W-137W. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS AT 04N93W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER SE MEXICO AND NE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED OVER FAR WESTERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1007 MB LOW ON THE ITCZ NEAR 08N134W NNW TO 14N135W AND 20N134W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W...AND S OF THE ITCZ TO 05N BETWEEN 127W AND 136W. ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N TO 22N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS EXPANDING THE NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT FT. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N125W TO 20N108W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E AND SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ON MON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON. THEN...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTOR OF THIS GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 32N114W TO 30.5N115W. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS N OF 29.5N AND SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TROUGH LATE MON...WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY LATE WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N93W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE