000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
                 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 03N100W TO 06N110W TO 04N118W TO 
05N126W TO 04N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W...AND 
FROM 04N TO 06N 124W AND 129W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
08N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES 
LOCATED NEAR 23N118W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 12N125W TO 06N126W.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ 
AXIS...PARTICULARLY FROM 04N TO 06N 124W AND 129W AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH PER A RECENT WINDSAT PASS. AN AREA OF SEAS IN THE 
6-7 FT RANGE IN NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WILL 
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WINDS WILL LOCALLY INCREASE 
TO 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
MORNING WITH FRESH WIND WAVES MIXING WITH NW SWELL.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED NW 
SWELL IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST REGION. THE FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W TONIGHT EXTENDING 
FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN ON SUN AND DISSIPATE BY MON. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE E-SE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8-9 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W 
TO 20N130W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE   1 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA S TO ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS PREVAIL... 
EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW GULF W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE 10 KT NW-N 
WINDS ARE. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN 
TONIGHT AND WINDS N OF 29.5N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY SUN 
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...VARIABLE 10 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. BY SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG 
EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N98W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S 
ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING 
AND LOWER PRES S OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING BUILDING SEAS   
UP TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE IN 
THIS GULF. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 
20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 08.5 TO 11N E OF 89W. WINDS TO 
25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MON.  

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 
8 FT.

$$
GR