000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS 
AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SLACKENS. WINDS WILL PULSE 
BACK TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE SUN...THEN 
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PULSE LATE SUN 
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 04N97W TO 06N125W TO 
04N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE NW WATERS NEAR 32N134W TO 
THE SE TO NEAR 21N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 14N120W TO 06N125W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. 
ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 
116W AND 125W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE W AROUND 5 KT DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE MAINLY 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS 5-6 FT...HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE AREA OF 
THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. 
WINDS WILL LOCALLY INCREASE TO 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 
FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH FRESH WIND WAVES MIXING WITH 
S AND NW SWELL.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED NW 
SWELL OF 8 FT HAS ALREADY MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE NW CORNER  
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EVENTUALLY 
MOVES E OF 140W EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W BY 24 HOURS... 
THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE E-SE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8-9 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 20N130W 
TO 30N125W BY EARLY MON MORNING.

GAP WINDS...                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE   1 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA S TO ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS PREVAIL... 
EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW GULF W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE 10 KT NW-N 
WINDS ARE. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN 
TONIGHT AND WINDS N OF 29.5N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY SUN 
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...VARIABLE 10 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. BY SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG 
EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N98W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S 
ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING 
AND LOWER PRES S OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING BUILDING SEAS   
UP TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE MON.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY