000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191456
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A SHARP RIDGE ALONG 
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO 
THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 30-40 KT WINDS 
WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI WHEN THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL THEN 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS. SEAS ARE UP 
TO 10-15 FT CURRENTLY AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT 
RESIDUAL NE SWELL PROPAGATING TO THE SW THROUGH 48 HOURS.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 06N110W TO 04N125W TO 07N136W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 07N138W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
02N TO 04N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION... 

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE  
SE TO NEAR 10N112W. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SW OF THE  
RIDGE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N130W TO  
13N133W AND THE SOUTHERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N136W TO 
05N138W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE SOUTHERN 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N    
TO 23N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W...AND ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A 
LINE FROM 062N124W TO 18N130W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN 
TROUGH.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF 100W ALONG 
WITH 5-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W 
WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF 
COMBINED SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY AROUND 
48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ SW OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES RIDGING 
ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH  
TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL 
BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 
EARLY EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY SUNRISE FRI AS 
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF AND WILL 
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE SW-W THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE   
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI MORNING AS WINDS FUNNEL INTO  
THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE  
CARIBBEAN SEA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN 
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS... 
OCCASIONALLY INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR 
LESS THROUGH 48 HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF WHERE 
SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY