000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE FEB 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF DENSE DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING AS HIGH AS 16 FEET BY LATE 
WEDNESDAY. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
THU...AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 4N93W. ITCZ FROM 4N93W TO 4N109W 
TO TROUGH NEAR 5N120W TO 5N130W 7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 119W-127W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA...THE STRONG SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE N OF THE AREA IS WEAKENING AND 
SHIFTING EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
DECREASING WINDS. THE NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL BE ON THU AROUND SUNRISE AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE 
AREA BUILDS IN THE GULF.
 
A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N137W TO 07N129W. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N134W TO 25N137W. LIGHT SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING 
MIDDLE TO UPPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS NEAR 32N128W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF THE AREA E OF THE FRONT TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. 

LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL 
DECAY GRADUALLY...TO LESS THAN 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 
DAYS.

$$
DGS