000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N 
OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W WITH N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 
15 FT BY EARLY WED.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N125W TO 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 132W TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION... 
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 
AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE ALLOWING ONE MORE PULSE OF 
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KT WINDS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA... STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS 
RESULTING N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 FT N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. BY EARLY TUE THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N129W TO 20N136W. THE 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT JUST HAS ENTERED THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 32N136W TO 26N140W. THE 
FRONT WILL MOVE TO 30N134 26N135W...DISSIPATING FROM 26N135W 
19N140W IN 24 HOURS...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE SAME LINE 12 
HOURS LATER. THE SWELL THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL 
INCREASE THE SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 TO 12 FT.

$$
DGS