000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ...IS ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...BRINGING THE WIND SPEEDS TO GALE-FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FOR SALINA CRUZ MEXICO HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WIND SPEEDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY REACH 40 KNOTS TO 45 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY...WITH THE HELP OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SHIP PHEO WAS REPORTING AT 15/0415 UTC A WIND SPEED OF 40 KNOTS NEAR 11.4N86.7W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH MORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL CREATE MERGING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FEET OR GREATER IN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY LATE SUNDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N83W TO 7N88W 04N92W AND 04N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N95W TO 07N106W 07N111W 06N117W 08N125W...TO 09N131W...AND TO 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N116W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N117W 15N116W 8N120W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 26N116W- 8N120W TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD AND TO THE EAST OF THE 26N116W 8N120W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N107W 10N108W 07N109W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N114W 13N119W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. THE 26N116W MB CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO ON MONDAY. A TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN GUERRERO TO NAYARIT THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO 21N133W AND TO 13N135W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 138W WESTWARD. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 30N140W BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 26N139W BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 13 TO 14 FEET. A NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 30N138W 26N139W COLD FRONT. GAP WINDS...INCREASING NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 02N. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY. THE GULF OF FONSECA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO ENHANCING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF FONSECA...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING THE WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY. $$ MT