000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOWER PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ...IS ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...DELIVERING WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30-40 KT OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WEDNESDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REACHING GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH 20 TO 25 KT TO SEAS TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N85W TO 06N110W TO 10N115W THEN RESUMES AT 10N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS N OF 15N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE SAME AREA BUT MAINLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N116W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COASTAL WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO ON MON. A TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N W OF 138W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 30N140W BY LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL EVENT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 13-14 FT. GAP WINDS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING N TO NE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA ALL THE WAY TO 02N...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. GULF OF FONSECA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO ENHANCING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW...THIS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS WILL CREATE MERGING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 110W BY LATE SUNDAY. SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT SEAS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N130W TO 03N140. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER TRAIN OF NW SWELL. THE WAVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. $$ GR