000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH 
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH AS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE ARE 
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT TONIGHT...AND 40 KT SAT NIGHT.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS 
THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO... A SERIES OF DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEMS DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS 
HAS FORCED HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH HAS INDUCED MODERATE 
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. 
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT 
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE GAP WIND FLOW FUNNELING 
ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE THIS 
FLOW...RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH SAT MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. 
IN FACT...THESE DOWNSLOPE GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 
KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONES TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
THIS FLOW...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF 
NICOYA. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND 
SHIFT EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO DIMINISH.
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06.5N101.5W 1009 
MB...TO 06N108W TO 12N117W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 13.5N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING N TO NE WIND FLOW OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN HAS ALSO BEGUN TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHERE NLY WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N THIS EVENING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY 
NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 03N TO 04N...WITH BUILDING SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL CREATE MERGING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 03N TO 
13N BETWEEN 85W AND 108W BY LATE SUNDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH A TROUGH REACHING SW 
TOWARD 20N114W. THIS IS HELPING TO DRAW LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS NE TO WESTERN MEXICO...AND ALSO 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS WITHIN AN AREA 
FROM 13.5N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. THIS AREA OF ACTIVE 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD 
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 26N.
 
THE UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC IS LIFTING NW OF THIS RIDGE...RESULTING IN A STALLED 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER AN AREA WEST OF A 
LINE FROM NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 
03N140W. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER TRAIN OF 
NW SWELL. WAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
  
$$ 
STRIPLING