000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130935 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED MORE...TO STRONG GALE FORCE...FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST WIND OBSERVATION FROM SALINA CRUZ MEXICO SHOWS 25 KNOTS. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS 35 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS STAY AT MINIMUM GALE-FORCE DURING THE SECOND 24-HOUR PERIOD ALSO. EXPECT THE RESULTANT NORTHEAST SWELL TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...MEANING FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REACH 8 FEET TO 9 FEET DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...AND THEY WILL BUILD TO NEARLY 12 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWELL THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL MERGE WITH THE SWELL THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 07N90W TO 06N95W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 6N99W...TO 08N109W...TO 07N120W...TO 06N130W...BEYOND 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...AND FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N110W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IN WESTERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TO AN 18N114W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N122W TO 07N125W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N123W TO 23N128W TO 10N137W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 121W FROM 16N TO 21N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA/WESTERN MEXICO AREA...EXTENDING FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N114W...TO 30N112W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...TO 23N110W NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ ALONG 14N109W 10N110W 06N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N128W...THROUGH 32N131W...TO 25N136W BEYOND 19N140W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N136W TO 30N138W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N138W BEYOND 26N140W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL...THAT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HAS PEAKED. IT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY...WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 11 FEET IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET OR GREATER ARE COVERING THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N120W TO 10N130W TO 04N137W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N117W TO 25N115W TO 10N130W BEYOND 05N140W ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET WILL BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 125W AND 132W...AND FROM 09N TO 17N FROM 132W WESTWARD. THE HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE THE GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...ALSO IS SUPPORTING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO PANAMA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MORE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO REACH 30 KNOTS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE GREAT BASIN...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. BY FRI AFTERNOON..WINDS WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS. $$ MT