000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121550 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY WILL SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH DENSER COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TODAY...BRINGING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING DOWN STREAM WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 18 FT BY LATE FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME FRI EVENING...BUT MAX DRAINAGE EXPECTED TO STILL REACH THE 40 KT RANGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON SAT. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT FLOW EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RESULTANT NE SWELL TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR S AS 04N BETWEEN 92-110W ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N83W TO 06N94W TO 05N110W TO 07N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17120W. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 50N165W. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING FROM THE UPPER CYCLONE TOWARD 30N140W IS CAUSING WEAK CONVECTION THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING AND WEAKENING WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BLOCKING DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA REACHING SOUTHWARD TO 20N. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA...LIMITING THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS WHERE SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 125W. THIS IS PART OF A NW SWELL TRAIN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 05N140W THROUGH LATE TODAY. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS SWELL WILL LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST PULSES IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AID OF LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE REGION WITH WINDS TO 30 KT EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TO 25 THROUGH PANAMA. SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO WILL BUILD TO 12 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO 9 FT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. FRESH E SWELL GENERATED FROM THE PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH NE TO E SWELL GENERATED FROM THE STRONG GALES THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 10 FT FRESH EASTERLY SWELL FROM GENERALLY 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W BY EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 17N120W WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO THAT WILL DRIFT SW TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACTIVE NEAR AND EAST OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ENHANCING FRESH SE WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. $$ CHRISTENSEN