000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU FEB 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 25-35 KT THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH 30-45 KT STRONG GALE CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE FRI WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT NEAR 14N95.5W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME FRI EVENING...BUT MAX DRAINAGE EXPECTED TO STILL REACH THE 40 KT RANGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON SAT. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT FLOW EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RESULTANT NE SWELL TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR S AS 04N BETWEEN 92-110W ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N82W TO 06N92W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88-107W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124-140W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS SPINNING AT 17N121W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 21N120W TO 16N97W TO 08N122W TO 21N120W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N127W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 23N140W. THE GRADIENT W OF THE RIDGE HAS RELAXED SOME AND NOW ONLY SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 30N...BUT 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N. LARGE NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF SEAS 8-15 FT ARE OBSERVED W OF LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W. THESE NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRI...BUT WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-7 FT BY THEN. THE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS BELOW 8 FT E OF 125W BY EARLY SAT. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT STALL BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK W OF 140W ON FRI NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINKING TO THE N OF 30N AROUND SUNRISE SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 7 FT IN OPEN LONG NW FETCH WATERS NEAR 30N ON FRI EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON SAT AFTERNOON. T GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH ONLY 20 KT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. A BLAST OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT... WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING NEAR 09N89W. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRI NIGHT WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS...WITH THE RESULTANT LARGE NE SWELLS PROPAGATING SW TO NEAR 07N97W LATE SAT WHERE THEY WILL MIX WITH N SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED...BUT PERHAPS 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE CURRENT 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TONIGHT...THEN RELAX SOME EARLY FRI. THE N WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT ON FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF N SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH NEAR 02N82W ON SAT. $$ NELSON