000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON 
INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GALE 
FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY LATE 
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT.  
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 03N95W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 03N108W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N127W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 24N140W WHILE A COMPLEX LOW 
PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE COMPLEX LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER 
THE NW WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NE FROM THE 
AREA ENABLING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
THU NIGHT...THEN STALL BY FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN 
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. THE 
MAIN IMPACT ASSOCIATED FROM THE COMPLEX LOW IS A SET OF LARGE NW 
SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY SEAS GREATER THAN 8 
FT COVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 17N140W WITH SEAS 
PEAKING NEAR 16 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. 
BY FRI AFTERNOON...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA W OF 
LINE FROM 30N115W TO 23N116W TO 00N137W WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 
11 FT OVER THE NW WATERS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THU 
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO NEAR 09N89W SAT AFTERNOON.
  
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL 
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THU NIGHT AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING AS 
FAR SOUTH AS 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING A PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY PEAK NEAR 30 KT THU NIGHT 
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. BY FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. 
  
$$ 
AL