000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111544 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON THU. THEN...A RE-ENFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N FLOW TO 20-30 KT THU EVENING WITH GALE CONDITIONS THU NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRONG GALE EVENT OF 45 KT EXPECTED FRI MORNING WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN AROUND 1200 UTC. THEN...THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SUN...THEN ANOTHER NOCTURNAL 20-30 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 05N92W TO 03N104W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 03N104W TO 06N125W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND NEAR 04N101W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 18N W OF 112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA ON 8-9 FT SEAS MAINLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 25N W OF 137W. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LARGE NW SWELL ARE OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 21N140W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 26N115W TO 00N138W BY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 8-12 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU EVENING...BUT STALL BY FRI. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS SPINNING NEAR 18N120W. AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING WHEN FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO NEAR 09N91W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THU NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WINDS OF 20- 30 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 04N81W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY THU EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 8 FT. $$ GR