000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND EXPECT ANOTHER 5 KT INCREASE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN NORTHERLY AT 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON THU. THEN A RE-ENFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N FLOW TO 20-30 KT THU EVENING WITH MINIMUM GALE CONDTIONS THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRONG GALE EVENT OF 45 KT EXPECTED FRI MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 18 FT NEAR 14N96W LATE FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE ON SUN. THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SUN...THEN ANOTHER NOCTURNAL 20-30 KT SURGE EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO NEAR A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 05N90W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMING SW OF THE LOW AND CONTINUING WSW TO 03N103W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 01S-07N BETWEEN 90-106W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS SPINNING AT 10N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE AT 05N107W. AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N115W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 13N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 20N120W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 33N128W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 14N97W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS RELAXED WITH NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. AN AREA OF 7-9 FT SEAS PRIMARILY DUE TO SUBSIDING NW SWELL CONTINUES N OF 18N BETWEEN 110-127W...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT W OF THE RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING WITH 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF 29N W OF 135W THROUGH EARLY THU. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LARGE NW SWELL ARE OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W. THIS BATCH OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI...BUT WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-7 FT BY THEN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU EVENING...BUT STALL BY FRI AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A BLAST OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THU NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT REACHING NEAR 09N88W. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRI NIGHT WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT...DEVELOPING ON THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AFTERNOON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL REACH NEAR 03N82W ON SAT. .GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT...WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 25 KT...LATER TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT IN THE LONG FETCH AREA NEAR 30N ON FRI EVENING. $$ NELSON