000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...                          
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WITHIN 30 NM OF 95W 
FROM 15N TO 16N INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. 
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. GALE WINDS WILL 
RETURN THU EVENING AND WILL EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA ON FRI.  
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
                              
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N88W TO 3N95W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N101W 6N123W 6N133W TO 7N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.      
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS MOVING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO COUPLED WITH COLD AIR NIGHTTIME 
DRAINAGE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED 
THEN BELOW STRONG BREEZES BY WED EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
AGAIN BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU 
EVENING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA  
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.  

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 140W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING THE AREA BUT IS BRINGING 
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THE NW PORTION. SWELLS WILL INCREASE TO 
17 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 116W AND IS CENTERED BY A 1033 MB 
HIGH NEAR 40N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 15N140W. THIS 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE EASTWWWWWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 
FRONT TO THE NW FROM ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 31N119W ALONG 20N121W TO 
7N119W GIVING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA FROM N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 115W-121W. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES IS GIVING THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STRONG BREEZES STARTING N OF 30N WED AFTERNOON THEN 
EXPANDING S TO 26N AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.        
                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT/THU 
MORNING. BOTH EVENTS WILL ADVANCE STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL OCCUR EARLY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY STRONG WINDS 
TO DEVELOP EARLY FRI COINCIDING WITH THE EVENTS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 
  
$$ 
PAW