000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE FORECAST STARTS WITH A MINIMAL GALE OF 25 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FEET NEAR 14N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN GALE- FORCE ON TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SURGE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL REACH A MAXIMUM AT 25 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRONG GALE EVENT OF 45 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 19 FEET NEAR 14N96W AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF GALE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUED GALE-FORCE WINDS STILL THROUGHOUT THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N87W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N89W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N89W...TO 03N93W TO 03N106W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N106W TO 05N115W TO 04N125W TO 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N123W...TO 20N122W...TO 07N121W...TO 01N124W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W...AND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N142W TO 27N139W...BEYOND 32N136W. ...DISCUSSION... ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N129W TO 25N133W TO 16N140W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N129W TO 26N124W TO 15N110W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE SECOND RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE EPAC WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO THE N COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FEET. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM 32N129W TO 20N140W LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE AXIS RELAXING... BUT THE GRADIENT W OF THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT W OF LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-13 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT STALLING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW BATCH OF NW SWELLS ALMOST WILL REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-7 FEET. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. THE THU NIGHT EVENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AROUND SUNRISE FRI. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. $$ MT