000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER MEXICO WILL 
HELP DEVELOP A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE 
TO GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED GALE 
WIND EVENT AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL VEER TUE. WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 13 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS.
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N87W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 05N95W TO 03N100W TO 03N105W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 05N111W TO 
03.5N120W TO 03.5N132W TO BEYOND 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N129W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N113W AND SW TO BEYOND 
26N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH 
OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE 
WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
ASSOCIATED WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AS WELL 
AS THE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

NW SWELL CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 115W. THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY WED AFTERNOON AREAL 
COVERAGE SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL DECREASE TO COVER THE AREA N 
OF 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS 
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 
THE FAR NW WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR GALE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS THOUGH WED. THE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN 
A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS...MIXING WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 16 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS....                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING WITH 
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
  
$$ 
AL