000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080950 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FAR NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY 30-35 KT GALE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 18-23 FT ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT. WESTERLY 30- 35 KT GALE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM W OF FRONT WITH SEAS OF 18-23 FT WITH LARGE NW SWELL. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO END AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 04N95W THEN TURNS W TO 04N101W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 05N115W TO 03N129W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FAR EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 03N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N116W TO 05N128W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N123W WILL DRIFT W TO NEAR 26N127W TONIGHT. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONT THE PAST FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W WILL ALSO BE BLOCKED AND STALL AND WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N124W TO 23N131W LATE TONIGHT AS A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N137W. BY THEN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. THE WESTERN HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE TO NEAR 32N133W ON MON AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 12N100W AND ABSORBING THE EASTERN HIGH CENTER. NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA EARLY MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN E OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON MON INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON EVENING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT NEAR 30N117W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX E OF A RIDGE FROM 32N127W TO 10N115W ON TUE...BUT TIGHTEN W OF THE RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N W OF 137W ON TUE EVENING THROUGH THU. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 08N125W CONTINUES TO MOVE W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST N OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 7-10 FT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE AT 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NEXT NORTHERLY EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE LATE WED NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE LATE THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. $$ NELSON