000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SENDING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE FORCED EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PUSHES SE THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SUN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY SUN EVENING AS THE WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY TO 18 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL STEADY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN...DIPPING BELOW 8 FT BY SUN EVENING. FAR NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A SERIES OF SYSTEMS RIDING A POWERFUL SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ARE PASSING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 25N132W WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH FOUND BEHIND IT FROM 32N133W TO 25N137W. SW WINDS TO 25 KT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE N OF 28N W OF 132W. A NEW...POWERFUL COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST W OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY SUNSET TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNSET TONIGHT UNTIL SUNRISE SUN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING NW WATERS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT N OF 27N DURING THE PERIOD OF THE GALE WARNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SUN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. AN AREA OF NW SWELL IS ALREADY IN PLACE W OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 16N140W. SEAS AS HIGH AS 16 FT LIE IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...BUT BUILDING NW SWELL AND INCREASING WINDS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 22 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY SUNSET SUN...BUT MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES SUN MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N84W TO 03N93W TO 03N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N98W TO 05N112W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N TO 10N E OF 88W AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 113W AND N OF THE AXIS TO 08N BETWEEN 113W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 14N108W AND ANOTHER SOUTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 17N140W. THE STUBBORN HIGH AND SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUN WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATER TODAY...BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH MON MORNING. GAP WINDS.... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL...ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TONIGHT AND RETURN IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER