000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A N-S SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG GALE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 20 FT...AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY...AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SUN. NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST AS FAR S AS 04N BETWEEN 89-105W TODAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE MON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON MON EVENING AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL 3-35 KT GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 32N126W TO 21N140W WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY. A SECONDARY SURGE... ANALYZED AS A TROUGH...HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 32N137W TO 27N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED W OF LINE FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W WITH SEAS OF 13-18 FT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH FROM 32N137W TO 27N140W LATER TODAY WITH SW 30-35 KT GALE WINDS DEVELOPING N OF 27N W OF 136W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13- 22 FT WITHIN THE GALE AREA. THESE GALE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT FROM 32N123W TO 23N132W EARLY MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 03N92W TO 02N104W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 01N115W...THEN TURNS NW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 05N86W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N120W WILL DRIFT W TO NEAR 26N127W SUN NIGHT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING SE FROM 32N132W TO 12N105W ON MON. NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS ON SUN AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA EARLY MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN E OF THE RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT NEAR 30N116W ON MON NIGHT. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 12N122W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WELL TO THE E SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 12N111W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT... ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA TO ABOUT 05N THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH. $$ NELSON