000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS 
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. CURRENTLY...THIS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO THE SW.  VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF AND REACHING NEAR 09N97W. THIS ROPE CLOUD IS LIKELY 
DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS 
INITIALLY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT TODAY...AND QUICKLY BUILD 
TO 21-22 FT BY FRI MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE TO STORM STRENGTH. 
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK 
DIURNAL FORCING AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SAT 
MORNING. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUN AS 
WINDS FINALLY TAPER BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N86W TO 06N94W TO 
05N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N108W THEN RESUMES 
AT 05N112W TO TO 04N120W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 22N140W 
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 30N136W TO 
27N140W. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
SURROUNDING THE FRONTS REMAINS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 
30N128W TO 22N140W. THE LEADING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 
30N131W TO 23N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON AND FROM 30N129W TO 23N140W 
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SW 
TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS 
RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 30N140W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N121W WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N110W TO 11N109W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
NEAR 12N122W. THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE 
NORTHERN STREAM.
                                                   
GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS 
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY FRI...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 8-10 FT AT THE TIME OF 
STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY 
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HOURS.
 
$$ 
GR