000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU FEB 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING 
AROUND 1200 UTC. WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KT EARLY FRI MORNING 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 18-20 FT. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT IS 
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N85W TO 03N93W TO 
02N100W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N100W TO 07N109W TO 05N117W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 
05N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 23N140W. STRONG SW WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N133W TO 
24N140W BY LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WILL INTENSIFY FRI NIGHT AND SAT FROM A REINFORCING THIRD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N120W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N 
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
WITH GENERALLY 6-7 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N117W TO 13N120W IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
                                                   
GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS 
THE GULF TODAY. EARLY FRI...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 8-9 FT AT THE TIME OF STRONGEST 
DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF 
OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 
20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL