000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050321 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU FEB 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS WEAK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PARTICULARLY N OF 15.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 95.5W WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NE THROUGH EARLY THU...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REINFORCING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THU MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 40-45 KT BY EARLY FRI MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 18 TO 20 FT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 44N138W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W WITH GENERALLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 129W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 8 TO 15 FT IN S TO SW AND W TO NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. THEREAFTER...THE MERGED FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY LATE FRI. BY FRI...PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COVERING THE WATERS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 21N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN 9 TO 14 FT...AND WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW CORNER BY LATE FRI WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 03N99W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N99W TO 04N106W TO 07N112W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...AND FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS INFLUENCE SOUTH TO NEAR 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 133W FROM A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N122W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SPECIAL FEATURES COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6-8 FT SEAS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N121W TO 12N121W WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY FRI...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ANTICIPATED TO BE 8-9 FT AT THE TIME OF STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN