000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WED. SEAS THROUGH WED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. THEREAFTER INTO THU...AS THE LOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING THU MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC. OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BY EARLY FRI...THE EVENT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 45 KT WITH MAXIMUM EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THU TO 15 FT... AND LIKELY PEAK AROUND 18 TO 20 FT EARLY FRI. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CURRENTLY NEAR 35N145W AT 988 MB. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA EARLY WED. EAST OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC N OF 27N W OF 138W. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WIND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO TRANSITION AND BECOME STATIONARY EARLY THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE 12 TO 17 FT RANGE BY WED AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER INTO THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 05N84W TO 04N84W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N84W TO 05N102W TO 04N114W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N103W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN 90W AND 105W THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED GENERALLY N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N128W TO 09N136W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. AT THE SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W INFLUENCES THE WATERS GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THIS AREA AND GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER WED INTO THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25- 30 KT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT AT TIMES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN