000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AT 1800 UTC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT BY LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY WED MORNING AS THE WINDS COME DOWN. GALE WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 31N152W WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON WITH S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS N OF THE AREA. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WED AT 1200 UTC TO THU AT 0000 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED NIGHT. LARGE SEAS TO 15-17 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N85W TO 05N110W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...THE CUT-OFF LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS MOVED INLAND AND NOW IS SITUATED OVER NW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CUT OFF LOW IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N104W TO 14N108W. THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO TEXAS....BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SW JET ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO MEXICO SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND NAYARIT. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N124W COVERS THE WATERS N OF 20 BETWEEN 115W AND 137W. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 09N TO 13N W OF 120W. WINDS AND SEAS HERE WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AND A NEW COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25- 30 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT AT TIMES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING... BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ GR