000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON FEB 2 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND 
PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE W GULF 
TUE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE 
SYSTEM TO CURTAIL SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...WITH 
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TUE AFTERNOON. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY 
BUILD TO 12-13 FT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 05N86W TO 05N94W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 08N113W TO 07N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS N OF 18N W OF 115W. ASCAT 
PASS AT 0620 UTC SHOWS SMALLER AREA OF 20-22 KT WINDS W OF 125W. 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK FURTHER TODAY AS HIGH 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE. HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT W OF 130W THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE IN 
THE NW PORTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. BY TUE 
AFTERNOON...REINFORCING COLD AIR ROUNDING THE S PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENERGIZE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH S TO 
SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED 
TO REACH 140W ON WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT WED MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC SHOWED NE WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN INDICATION THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT TUE MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. FRESH BREEZE IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL