000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N85W TO 04N95W TO 08N118W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 
137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N133W SENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 16N114W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 28N140W. 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 2000 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE 
TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND 
W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE 
OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO 
WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A CUT OFF LOW 
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON. PACIFIC 
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IS SUPPLYING FUEL FOR THE 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. LIGHTNING 
DATA SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO N OF 18N PRIMARILY W 
OF THE SIERRA MADE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. RADARS OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD IN 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ALONG ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO...WITH MAINLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS S 
AND TURNS MORE POSITIVE TILT...THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HEAVIEST 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND 
MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ON MON.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SE RETURN FLOW BUILDS OVER THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SWELL FROM THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA WILL SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TROUGHING BUILDS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN 
PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 
DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH MON MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 2342 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA WERE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. 
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
SUN BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N BY EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE 
SUBSIDING.
 
$$ 
SCHAUER