000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG 
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE 
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS 
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE 
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE 
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N 
BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH 
THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO 
FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS 
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 
8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA 
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY 
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A 
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE 
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES 
S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS 
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER 
THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
SAT AFTERNOON.
 
$$ 
SCHAUER/DGS