000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN 
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. 
COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL 
QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT 
BY LATE SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WIND EVENT... 
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING TUE AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED 
MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N110W TO 04N126W TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N132W TO 15N135W WITH 
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W DUE TO THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH. 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD 
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW 
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM 
31N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W BY SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE  
NW WATERS MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 22N136W...THEN 
DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE. 
 
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N 
AND 27N THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...                                                
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT 
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ALSO FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$ 
GR