000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N85W TO 04N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N105W TO 05N125W TO 06N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17N133W ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N125W TO 17N133W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 130W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 21N134W TO 16N135W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED E OF 100W AND COVERS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC WATERS N OF 03N. SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO NOTED IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL FROM 19N TO 21N W OF 130W. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 13-14 FT NEAR 30N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12- 13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 133W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND NW MEXICO BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N THU MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF BY EARLY FRI MORNING. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT. GAP WINDS... PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF 6- 7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING...THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT MORNING. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS REACHING 35-40 KT FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 16 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. $$ GR