000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 05N100W TO 
06N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N110W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
                                 
HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS TO NEAR 19N114W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
LOCATED ALONG 136W FROM 17N TO 21N. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. 
FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N137W 
TO 06N138W. THE 1822 UTC ASCAT-B SHOWED THE WINDS SHIFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE 
AREA THU MORNING...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 14-15 FT NEAR 
30N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT 
THROUGH SAT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SW CONUS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG 
N OF 30N THU MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. FRESH NW WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...                                              
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REACHING 25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF 6-7 
FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS THIS WEATHER PATTERN. 

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT 
DUE TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAX SEAS 
OF 6-7 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SAT 
MORNING. 
 
$$ 
GR